QUEEN OF DISASTER

The city of New Orleans is the "whispered" queen of disaster when it comes to hurricanes.

Probably the first question that a weatherman or a news reporter asks when they learn of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is ... "Does it have a chance of hitting New Orleans?"

This is because no matter how many times Pensacola gets pounded with hurricanes - that city will still survive and loss of life will be small.

But New Orleans (NOLA) is a different story. A CAT 2 hurricane, were one to hit NOLA, would cause monumental damage. Anything above a CAT 2 - would likely be a disaster rivaled only by catastrophe's you've seen and heard about in THIRD WORLD countries.

For weather reporters, a big hurricane plowing though NOLA is the "holy grail" of stories. A once in a lifetime chance to cover what is anticipated to be the "mother of all disasters". So when a reporter hears of a hurricane in the Gulf - they want to immediately know if it has a chance of hitting NOLA. Joe Bastardi - from ACCUWEATHER.COM - secretly wishes for a big hurricane to hit NOLA. Any time a storm enters the Gulf - doesn't matter what the "models" say - Joe will always predict for the storm to hit NOLA. You watch - if a hurricane ever does head this way - old Joe will be haulin' brownie down to NOLA to cover it. He knows the stakes here.

Hurricane CAMILLE was the last catastrophic storm to hit the Gulf Coast - in the late '60's - and she missed NOLA, making landfall instead just over the LA/MS state line. Loss of life was high - and the Mississippi Gulf Coast was ravaged - it took a generation to repair the damage.

But that was nothing compared to the disaster potential of NOLA.

There are several reasons that NOLA is a disaster waiting to happen ...

The city of NOLA sits below sea level - in a "bowl". If someone spills a glass of milk in NOLA - the city floods. People working in the city are used to listening to the weather reports when they're at work. They watch the skies and judge if a sudden rainshower might turn into a flash flood that would strand them at work. When the water gets high in the streets - the SUV's are about the only vehicles that can crawl through them - and they are on notice - make NO WAKE that will wash into someone's house. People get upset about that.

And that's just what it's like during your standard "summertime" rain season here.

Another reason for NOLA's disaster potential is the loss of the Louisianna wetlands - which are disappearing each day at a staggering rate. These wetlands - what's left of them - serve as a "buffer" between NOLA and a hurricane storm surge. Since those wetlands are only a fraction of what they were a hundred years ago - it's anticipated that NOLA will be ravaged by storm surges.

But probably the number one thing that contributes to NOLA's disaster potential has nothing to do with the geographic placement of the city. It has to do with the sheer volume of urban poor that reside in NOLA. The numbers are massive. The Mayor of New Orleans cannot even order a MANDATORY evacuation of NOLA because many of these people have no form of transportation to evacuate with. There are no hurricane shelters in the city - usually the Mayor will designate the SUPER DOME as a shelter - in the last desparate hours before a storm hits - just so that people will have a place to go. The safety of that place is a crap shoot though. A direct hit from a CAT 3 or above on NOLA will take many lives.

And the flooding from a hurricane. The building I work in is a six story building in downtown NOLA. During Hurricane Camille - which didn't even hit the city - the bottom two floors were completely flooded. But guess what? Flooding is just the tip of the iceberg because there is so much hazardous material in the city of NOLA that those flood waters will create a massive environmental catastrophe in spreading that stuff around.

With all of the above, most experts believe that there will be no such thing as "rebuilding" this city after a major hurricane comes through. They believe it would just be better to walk away from this place - or swim away from it - and everybody go someplace else! And when that happens - your gas prices are going to go through the roof and so are the prices on imports because a huge chunk of the nation's gas and imported goods comes through this city.

Hurricane KATRINA is now in the Gulf, and some are predicting CAT 4 by landfall and NOLA, again, is in the window of possibility for a strike. So now NOLA goes into the hurricane disaster preparation mode that we all know so well. I hope we don't get hit - but we are certainly "due".

By the way - the best hurricane news comes from WWL TV's John Gumm. When a storm is on the way - I'm on the WWL website reading everything he has to say!